Bordernomics

Mexico’s labor standards no obstacle to NAFTA deal: Mexican minister

Bordernomics — Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:47:34 +0000

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Tensions over Mexico’s labor standards will not prevent the signatories to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)from reaching an accord to overhaul the deal, the country’s labor minister said on Wednesday.

Negotiators from the United States, Canada and Mexico are due to meet in Mexico City from Feb. 25 to March 5 for the next round of talks to rework NAFTA, with several major sticking points still casting doubt over the future of the accord.

Foremost among them are U.S. demands to secure a bigger chunk of the automotive business in North America, though unions have also relentlessly attacked Mexican labor standards and pay on the grounds they undermine working conditions in the region.

Still, Roberto Campa, who took office as labor minister last month, said he did not believe labor-related disputes would prevent an agreement.

“Based on the information we’ve received from those who have taken part in the (NAFTA) talks, we’re sure that labor issues will not be an obstacle to concluding the negotiation of the deal,” Campa told reporters at a news conference.

U.S. and Mexican unions sent a complaint during the previous round of NAFTA talks to the U.S. Labor Department that Mexico continues to violate the accord’s labor standards.

Meanwhile, the boss of Canada’s biggest private sector union, Unifor, has repeatedly said NAFTA should be scrapped if Mexican standards do not markedly improve.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to quit NAFTA if the deal cannot be reworked in favor of the United States, arguing it has increased the U.S. trade deficit and led to jobs migrating south of the border to lower-cost Mexico.

Supporters of NAFTA say the industrial integration of the United States with Mexico has been vital in upholding the competitiveness of the region.

Though economic growth in Mexico has fallen well short of the rates first targeted by President Enrique Pena Nieto, job creation has been one of the brighter spots, helping to underpin consumer spending in Latin America’s No. 2 economy.

Campa forecast that by the time Pena Nieto’s six-year term in office ends on Nov. 30, the government will have created some 4 million new formal jobs, surpassing the total registered in the two previous administrations put together.

The new jobs total under Pena Nieto stood at just over 3.1 million as of December, according to the labor ministry.

Reporting by Dave Graham; Editing by Tom Brown

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Lawmaker interest in NAFTA intensifies amid Trump moves

Bordernomics — Wed, 21 Feb 2018 18:20:36 +0000

Published on The Hill.

By VICKI NEEDHAM

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has never been more popular on Capitol Hill.

The three-nation trade agreement that has long come under fire from both parties is getting a rousing defense amid a push from the Trump administration to either renegotiate or scrap the deal altogether.

Business advocates of the 24-year-old deal between the United States, Canada and Mexico say lawmakers have become significantly more interested in the pact recently amid talks to update the deal despite President Trump’s threats to withdraw from the agreement.

Groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, along with a growing number of lawmakers, are urging the White House to finish updating the deal and resist any urge to withdraw from the agreement.

John Murphy, senior vice president for international policy at the Chamber, said he was surprised during this week’s NAFTA lobbying blitz on Capitol Hill at how much lawmakers have ratcheted up their engagement in the past few months.

“It has been a sea change since last October,” Murphy said.

Murphy said that the consensus on Capitol Hill is to update the deal and avoid so-called poison pills that could doom the pact.

“They are strongly supportive of modernizing the agreement and lawmakers are pushing back against unconventional approaches that would reduce trade and push production offshore,” Murphy said.

The Chamber had about 150 business representatives who visited a mix of 280 Republican and Democratic House offices.

Last fall, the Chamber warned that several of the U.S. proposals could torpedo the entire deal and they urged the Trump administration to “do no harm” as negotiations continue.

The seventh round of NAFTA talks are slated to begin Feb. 25 and run through March 5 in Mexico City.

Christine Bliss, president of the Coalition of Services Industries, said she was pleased with what she heard during her visits to lawmakers’ offices recently.

“Members increasingly seem to understand that NAFTA has a positive impact on jobs and growth in their districts. It’s really resonating,” she said.

Bliss, whose group represents a broad spectrum of businesses from insurance and banking to telecommunications and logistics, said the surge of support and attention to the NAFTA deal is “a very welcome change and noticeable from where we were.”

She said the voices of support are growing louder on the Hill, helping to drown out Trump’s regular calls to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement.

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NAFTA and the Future of the U.S.-Mexico Relationship: A collection of thought pieces

Bordernomics — Wed, 21 Feb 2018 17:42:21 +0000

2018 Center for U.S. – Mexican Studies.

The UC San Diego Center for U.S. – Mexican Studies commissioned this series of thought pieces for a forum hosted by the University of California and Tecnológico de Monterrey in Washington, DC entitled The Future of NAFTA and the State of U.S. – Mexico Relations. These essays provided the intellectual cornerstone for discussions at the event with renowned academics, policymakers, and business leaders. In the essays, faculty from across the University of California provide perspectives on what NAFTA has meant for North America and the changes in global trade and production since its creation, exploring:

• The need for investment in education and workforce development to prepare workers to participate in the 21st-century economy

• The complex and often counter-intuitive connections between trade, migration and labor markets

• The importance of updating trade agreements to include digital products and opportunities for trade in services like healthcare

Authored against the backdrop of the first and second rounds of NAFTA renegotiation talks, the pieces examine what we got wrong and what we got right almost three decades ago during the initial negotiations. And while the outcome of current renegotiations is far from clear, they offer an understanding of the importance of an integrated North America to the

prosperity of the region, as well as the immediate damage that would be caused by the cancellation of the agreement.

Download [563.70 KB]

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Perryman Group: NAFTA has had significant and positive impact on economies of Mexico and U.S.

Bordernomics — Mon, 12 Feb 2018 17:18:23 +0000

Ena Capucion

February 9, 2018

MISSION, RGV – A new study on U.S.-Mexico “Bordernomics” states U.S. and Mexico can gain an additional $75.1 billion in annual gross income as well as provide over 790,000 jobs if the two countries enhance integration for additional trade.

The study comes from The Perryman Group.

Ray Perryman

According to the report, trade between U.S. and Mexico more than doubled since 1999 and increased by 15.7 percent since 2011. In 2016, trade in goods and services between the two countries amounted to over $580 billion. One major contribution for this growth is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

“A number of studies provide compelling evidence that NAFTA has had a significant and positive impact on the economies of Mexico and the United States,” the executive summary states.

However, NAFTA was opened up for renegotiation between the U.S., Canada and Mexico in 2017. The Perryman Report states the potential U.S. withdrawal from the agreement is causing investment and business growth along the border to slow.

An executive summary of the report states:

Trade between the US and Mexico has grown substantially over the past decades, more than doubling since 1999 and increasing by 15.7 percent since 2011.Trade in goods and services between the US and Mexico totaled $586.9 billion in 2016. The bulk of that amount is merchandise trade ($530.2 billion or 90.4 percent), while trade in services equaled $56.6 billion (9.6 percent).

A major reason for this growth is the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and a number of studies provide compelling evidence that NAFTA has had a significant and positive impact on the economies of Mexico and the United States. The widely varying characteristics of the two areas give rise to numerous opportunities to further optimize various comparative advantages in production and distribution.

The Perryman Group estimated the current trade potential including net export capacity and net import requirements for each of the US and Mexico border states to illustrate opportunities for additional trade and cooperation.

The Perryman Group’s analysis of trade indicates estimated total export potential from the 10-state area of nearly $2.3 trillion per year.

For the US border states as a whole, the net export potential is more than $1.9 trillion dollars, while for the Mexico border states, the net export potential is almost $365.0 billion.

U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar

Congressman Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, attended a U.S.-Mexico Bordernomics News Conference in Washington D.C. and spoke about the importance of trade with Mexico.

“I have said time and time again that limiting the trade between the United States and Mexico would eliminate American jobs and hurt the economy,” said Cuellar, a member of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee, and Homeland Security and Defense Subcommittees.

“Both countries rely on each other heavily for trade, retail and tourism. That is why it is important that we modernize NAFTA and strengthen Texas’ relationship with Mexico to optimize prosperity.”

The summary states there are a few actions that can help enhance integration and trade such as increased access to higher education and technology, encourage entrepreneurship in Mexico, as well as maintaining the level of economic integration that already exists through supporting NAFTA.

“Increased economic integration involves taking advantage of opportunities and working together to resolve challenges,” The Perryman Group states. “Long term prosperity on both sides of the border depends on working together towards optimal solutions.”

Also present at the news conference were Congressman William Hurd, R-San Antonio, Senior Vice President of IBC Bank Eddie Aldrete, Executive Director of Mexicans & Americans Thinking Together (MATT) Aracley Garcia-Granados, Board Member of the MATT Foundation & Former Texas Secretary of State Hope Andrade, along with trade and border experts.

Cuellar added: “I would like to thank Bordernomics Alliance for assembling this news conference, and I thank Dr. Ray Perryman for releasing his finding to the community. This crucial information will provide necessary, in-depth insight into the positive affects trade has on our country.”

About the Bordernomics Alliance:

The mission of the Bordernomics Alliance is to increase economic prosperity and quality of life for the ten Border States through active public/private collaborations in advocacy, trade, networking and information. The Study depicts the most current trade relations between the US and Mexico. The study included twelve focus groups with leaders from the ten Border States to explore potential areas of improved cooperation, as well as obstacles to these efforts. The findings will serve as a foundation for the Bordernomics Alliance mission, aimed at raising awareness of an economically powerful mega-region that gives us a competitive advantage in the global market.

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The implications of US withdrawal from NAFTA for businesses

Bordernomics — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 22:47:56 +0000

February 6, 2018

From: OFX Group.

In response to customer questions about NAFTA’s influence on the weakening of the US dollar, OFX summarized facts and sentiments on the prospect of a US withdrawal from the trade agreement

Why businesses should care about what happens to NAFTA

As trade talks between the US, Canada and Mexico continue in earnest, much has been written about the impact of a world without NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Agreement). In place since 1994, NAFTA was designed to encourage investment and the freer flow of goods between Canada, Mexico and the US. Under NAFTA the countries pay nothing – no tariffs – on goods that cross the border. In the 23 years since introduction, US trade has more than tripled: in particular, US trade growth with Mexico and Canada has grown more rapidly than US trade with the rest of the world.

Here we will summarize the main points and distill the potential impact to US business. In sum:

Dollar weakness. The threat of NAFTA dissolving has influenced the weakening of the dollar as other countries begin to plan for American trade protectionism. This isn’t the only factor influencing the current dollar weakness but it is definitely having an effect. A weaker dollar favors those who are buying US products (because they are cheaper) and traveling to the US. However, a weaker dollar makes buying goods or parts across borders more expensive for US businesses.
Tariff increases. If the US backs out of NAFTA, the tariffs that will be charged for US goods moving across the Canadian or Mexican border will likely revert to those in place through the WTO (World Trade Organization), which are more than zero. Canada and the US had a trade agreement in place prior to NAFTA that they might revisit. Either way, pulling out would likely raise costs for American businesses.
Supply chain disruption. A byproduct of NAFTA has been the deep integration of supply chains across the three countries. By some estimates disrupting embedded supply chains will put tens of thousands of jobs in jeopardy. Large companies that operate in all three economies such as Ford, Coca-Cola, HP and GM are preparing for an uncertain future.
Bad feelings. The US has been a reliable partner in both Mexico and Canada, but that appears to be changing. With an onset of mistrust and trade protectionism there is speculation about how long any agreement will last. Some believe that if the US does withdraw, Mexico and Canada will retaliate by imposing additional restrictions on US products entering their markets (in particular, agricultural products, machinery and chemicals). Clearly, withdrawing will go against a mood of openness and predictability.

The US Administration’s Position

The current US administration argues that NAFTA has been a bad deal for the American people. In sum, administration officials argue that:

The US should not encourage US companies to invest in Mexico and Canada primarily for export back to the US
A national manufacturing policy dependent on Canadian and Mexican exports to the US hurts the US economy
Factory jobs should be created back home in the US
Mexico is stealing jobs from the US

NAFTA: A Scapegoat?

The reasons why NAFTA is deemed responsible for so many American economic ills are hard to untangle, but revolve around the US trade deficit and economic dislocation. Proponents of the repeal argue that NAFTA heavily contributes to an increasing US trade deficit. It’s undisputed that the US has become a net trade importer by importing more goods than are exported. In turn, both US political parties blame NAFTA for the decline of US manufacturing jobs, factory closures and job losses.

Experts are unclear about a direct link between NAFTA and overall US employment trends. But they acknowledge that those US industries that were more exposed to tariffs have been hit harder than others (textile, apparel, automotive). And, some economists argue that more jobs have been created than lost. Other factors such as rapid technological changes, demographic shifts and the role of trade with players like China have also added to the trade imbalance and perceived loss of jobs.

Hurry Up and Negotiate

The negotiation talks will extend through the end of March in several rounds. At the beginning of February, they had completed the sixth round with some progress made on appliances and solar panels. They are expected to take up agreements on telecom and digital next. At the moment, the US continues to reject perceived compromises on issues like dispute arbitration and a sunset clause for the deal. Time is running out though. The upcoming Mexican presidential election in the summer may create further delay. Talks could be put on hold through the summer and even possibly until a new Mexican president takes power in December.

US set deadline for NAFTA negotiations	March 31st, 2018
Mexican Presidential election date	July 1st , 2018
US mid-term election	November 6th, 2018
Mexican Presidential inauguration	December 1st, 2018

Expect Uncertainty

Policy experts disagree on the power of the US president to unilaterally withdraw from NAFTA without the approval of Congress. Meanwhile, other views hold that the US focus should be on the trade imbalance between the US and China. Regardless, any abrupt changes are likely to negatively impact the US and global economy with American businesses and consumers experiencing higher costs.

With a multitude of unpredictable factors impacting the direction of NAFTA negotiations North American currency market participants can only be sure of one thing this year: continued uncertainty.

OFX recommends that its business customers actively monitor the catalyst events listed above and consider your response to either the best and worst case scenarios in managing currency exposures. Also, keep in mind that NAFTA is just one potential market moving event on the horizon. Currency management strategies can potentially help guard against volatility and unpredictability from NAFTA and other market events to come this year.

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A World without NAFTA?

Bordernomics — Thu, 08 Feb 2018 23:28:50 +0000

February 7th, 2018 | Written by GT Staff Global Trade
The Trump administration’s efforts to re-negotiate NAFTA continue amidst uncertainty and growing concern whether the parties will be able to conclude talks successfully. Several major issues are still pending resolution, so the NAFTA talks have been extended through the first quarter of 2018, including a negotiating round in Montreal in late January.

With such significant conceptual gaps between the parties, the future of the agreement is in question—but what is truly at stake? What would a post-NAFTA world look like? To analyze the potential impact of withdrawal on job growth, competitiveness, and geopolitics, the Wilson Center partnered with the Council of the Americas to co-host a discussion with city mayors, former ambassadors and business leaders from the three NAFTA countries.

“If the world cannot trust the United States to uphold an international agreement that was negotiated by a Republican administration and passed under a Democratic administration, with both bipartisan and bicameral support, the credibility of the United States in highly sensitive trade matters would be suspect from now until long into the future,” said Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas.

“NAFTA is a story of success, of growth, of jobs,” said Kevin Faulconer, mayor of San Diego. “Free trade works. It works for our country, it works for our city. Oftentimes a product will cross the border two or three times before it’s finished. What a great example of NAFTA.

“There is now a $2.5 billion supply chain, this didn’t exist back in 1994,” he added.

“We are in this together,” said Don Iveson, mayor of Edmonton. “All three North American countries constantly work together on trade. Edmonton does $1 billion in trade with Houston alone, in oil and gas, intellectual property, advanced manufacturing.”

“It would be devastating to lose NAFTA because it would put American businesses at a disadvantage,” said Paola Avila, vice president of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce. “It’s more than NAFTA supply chains that are integrated, it’s our economies. When one catches a cold, the others get a fever.”

“The potential tariff increases themselves from a NAFTA withdrawal aren’t the primary issue,” said Karan Bhatia, vice president for government affairs and policy at General Electric. “The resulting uncertainty is the real problem. We at GE support an updated and strengthened NAFTA.”

“Beyond the economic numbers is the more compelling story of how NAFTA changed the geopolitical landscape of all North America for the better,” said Arturo Sarukhan, former Mexican ambassador to the US. “With a presidential election coming up and plummeting perceptions of the United State in Mexico, the wiggle room a Mexican administration may have to accept deals that make or break NAFTA in four to eight months may be zero.”

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TLCAN 2.0 daría un empujón de 5 mmdd al PIB

Bordernomics — Wed, 07 Feb 2018 21:30:47 +0000

Con el fortalecimiento del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte TLCAN los seis estados transfronterizos de México (Baja California Sonora Chihuahua Coahuila Nuevo León y Tamaulipas) darían al PIB nacional un impulso adicional de casi cinco mil millones de dólares y 95 mil 948 nuevos empleos.

Ray Perryman, presidente y CEO de The Perryman Group, una consultoría de análisis económico con sede en Texas, señaló que el comercio las relaciones de negocio los flujos laborales y los vínculos familiares unen a los 10 estados que colindan con la frontera México Estados Unidos en los que habita 23 5 del total de la población estado unidensey 17.8% de la mexicana.

De acuerdo al estudio Bordernomics de la American Chamber el Consejo Mexicano deAsuntos Internaciona lesyla Fundación Matt si se mantiene en vigor elTLCAN y se registra un incremento de al menos un aunidad en el índice de Integración Económica para el comercio trans fronterizo las ganancias para el PIB de Estados Unidos serían de 70 mil millones de dólares.

En materia de empleo adicional a los 95 mil 948 pues tos de trabajo en México enEU se generarían 702 mil421 El intercambio comercial entre México yEU debe ser positivo aprovechando las cadenas de valor que ya fun cionan eficientemente dice Francisco de Rosenzweig presidente del Task Forcé Norteamérica deAmcham.

El también ex subsecretario de Comercio Exterior consideró no obstante que los resultados de la renego ciación del TLCAN llegarán hasta después del proceso electoral de los tres países que lo integran. En su opinión en la séptima ronda de discusión a celebrarse en la Ciudad de México habrá un espacio para avanzar en los temas más controversiales pero en la parte política habrá que esperar a que pasen las elecciones Recordó que tanto en México como en Es tados Unidos y algunas provincias de Quebec y Ontario Canadá tendrán este año procesos electorales redacción.

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Rosenzweig: ronda en CdMx, puente para avanzar en TLCAN

Bordernomics — Wed, 07 Feb 2018 19:33:50 +0000

El ex subsecretario de comercio exterior, Francisco de Rosenzweig, dijo que la séptima ronda de negociaciones, que se realizará en México, puede ser un puente para avanzar en algunos temas.

Milenio 2018/02/06 13:12 Luis Moreno

La buena relación que existe entre el secretario de Economía, Ildefonso Guajardo, y el representante comercial de Estados Unidos, Robert Lighthizer, puede ayudar a avanzar en la modernización del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN), señaló el ex subsecretario de comercio exterior, Francisco de Rosenzweig.

Después de participar en evento para presentar el estudio “Bordernomics, TLCAN y el efecto de la frontera”, explicó que tomando ventaja de la relación “tan positiva” con Estados Unidos y Canadá, la ronda de México puede ser un puente para avanzar en algunos temas.

“Me parece fundamental la buena relación que tiene el secretario Guajardo con Lighthizer para que pueda capitalizarse en la ronda de México”, subrayó de cara a la séptima ronda que tendrá lugar a finales de este mes en la capital del país.

El asesor del Consejo Consultivo de Negociaciones Internacionales, dijo que “claramente hay una tensión entre Canadá y Estados Unidos, dado que las propuestas que presentó Canadá no fueron bien recibidos”.

En el evento, Ray Perryman, CEO de Perryman Group, dijo que una mayor integración en la frontera entre Estados Unidos y México crearía 795 mil empleos y 75 mil millones de inversión en ambos países.

Dijo que la integración es fundamental entre ambos países, pero que México tiene más en juego que perder sin un acuerdo, aunque no ve un escenario de terminación.

Detalló que en los cuatro estados de Estados de Estados Unidos que hacen frontera con México habitan 75.5 millones de personas, que representan 23.5 por ciento del total de la población de ese país, mientras que en los seis estados mexicanos de la frontera norte habitan 21.2 millones de personas, que son 17.8 por ciento del total de la población.

MCM

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Exclusive: Canada increasingly convinced Trump will pull out of NAFTA

Bordernomics — Thu, 11 Jan 2018 22:06:13 +0000

David Ljunggren

LONDON, Ontario (Reuters ) – Canada is increasingly convinced that President Donald Trump will soon announce the United States intends to pull out of NAFTA, two government sources said on Wednesday, sending the Canadian and Mexican currencies lower and hurting stocks.

The comments cast further doubt on prospects for talks to modernize the trilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which Trump has repeatedly threatened to abandon unless major changes are made.

Officials are due to hold a sixth and penultimate round of negotiations in Montreal from Jan. 23-28 as time runs out to bridge major differences.

It is not certain the United States would quit NAFTA even if Trump gave the required six months’ notice, since he is not obliged to act once the deadline runs out. Notice of withdrawal could also raise opposition in Congress.

One of the Canadian government sources also said later it was not certain that Trump would move against the treaty and that Ottawa was prepared for many scenarios.

But even the prospect of potential damage to the three nations’ integrated economies sparked market concerns.

Wall Street’s major stock indexes ended lower on Wednesday, partly due to those worries. [.N]

The Canadian dollar weakened to its lowest this year against the greenback on Wednesday as the NAFTA concerns tempered bets that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates next week.

Mike Archibald, associate portfolio manager at AGF Investments in Toronto, cited “a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the horizon”.

Canadian government bond prices rose across the yield curve and railway, pipeline and other trade-sensitive stocks weighed on the country’s main index.

Mexico’s currency also weakened and stocks extended losses. The S&P/BM IPC stock index fell about 1.8 percent.

“There’s been chatter in the market going into this week that it was coming up,” Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

Royal Bank of Canada’s Chief Executive Dave McKay said on Tuesday he believed there was now a greater chance that NAFTA could be scrapped.

“The government is increasingly sure about this … it is now planning for Trump to announce a withdrawal,” one of the sources, who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the situation, said.

Separately, a U.S. source close to the White House quoted Trump as saying “I want out” as the talks drag on with little sign of progress.

A White House spokesman said “there has been no change in the president’s position on NAFTA”.

ALARMED

Trump has long called the 1994 treaty a bad deal that hurts American workers. His negotiating team has set proposals that have alarmed their Canadian and Mexican counterparts.

Among the most divisive are plans to establish rules of origin for NAFTA goods that would set minimum levels of U.S. content for autos, a sunset clause that would terminate the trade deal if it is not renegotiated every five years, and ending the so-called Chapter 19 dispute mechanism.

The head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that economic gains made through tax cuts and the lifting of business regulations would be undone if the U.S. canceled trade deals, including NAFTA.

General Motors Co shares fell 2.4 percent. The Detroit automaker has 14 manufacturing facilities in Mexico, including one that builds large pickup trucks, among the automaker’s most profitable vehicles. Trucks built there could be subject to a 25 percent tariff if the U.S. exits NAFTA.

”We have always said that this is a possibility,” a Mexican government source with knowledge of the talks told Reuters, referring to the prospect of a U.S. withdrawal.

Mexico’s Economy Ministry declined to comment on the report, a ministry spokesman said.

Scott Minerd, Global Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim Partners, said “if Trump were to announce a NAFTA exit, the stock market would probably pull back by 5 percent or so before advancing to new highs. Most likely the Canadians are reacting to the President’s negotiating posture.

The Canadian sources said that if Trump did announce the United States was pulling out, Canada would stay at the table, since the talks would continue at a lower level. Mexico has previously said it would walk away if Trump formally announced Washington intended to quit.

Canadian officials say if Trump does announce a U.S. withdrawal, it could be a negotiating tactic designed to win concessions. The talks are scheduled to wrap up by the end of March.

The news broke as the cabinet of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau began gathering in the southwestern Ontario town of London ahead of a scheduled two-day meeting where NAFTA is one of the items on the agenda.

A spokesman for Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland – in overall charge of U.S.-Canada relations and the NAFTA file – was not immediately available for comment.

Separately, Canada launched a wide-ranging trade complaint against the United States, the World Trade Organization said on Wednesday, in a dispute that Washington said would damage Canada’s own interests and play into China’s hands.

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‘It’s a mess’: DACA negotiations hit a snag ahead of White House meeting

Bordernomics — Thu, 11 Jan 2018 01:12:47 +0000

(CNN)Republicans and Democrats will sit down with President Donald Trump in a bipartisan meeting Tuesday aimed at moving closer to protecting hundreds of thousands of immigrants from deportation, but a long-entrenched partisan divide over immigration policy and a looming budget deadline are threatening progress.

Republican and Democrats involved in negotiations over the must-pass January spending deal say that DACA — the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program — has become the key to unlocking any funding agreement and some are frustrated with how negotiations are unfolding. Republicans charge that Democrats have all but halted talks on spending caps until there is a resolution on DACA, which gives undocumented immigrants who came to the country as children a chance to stay, work or study in the US without fear of deportation.

“Seems to me that Democrats are holding that deal hostage for a DACA negotiation and we are meeting at the White House tomorrow on a bipartisan basis with the President to see what that might look like,” said the Senate’s No. 2, Texas Republican John Cornyn. “But I think that’s going to make the January 19 date pretty hard to hit.”

“It’s a mess,” said one person directly involved in the negotiations.

A separate GOP aide said the broader environment for both parties simply “isn’t in a good place right now.”

Democrats argue the White House hasn’t been fully engaged to the degree it needs to be and say that a long and broad policy wish list released last week just further irritated Democrats working closely on the immigration compromise. One Democratic aide argued the White House’s list was “out of the realm of reality.”

Republicans can’t avoid Trump’s wall promises in DACA talks

“No wall,” said Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris of California. “Listen, I believe in border security. I think it’s very important that we have a secure border, but spending billions and billions of dollars on this wall because of a political promise and a campaign promise is ridiculous.”

What Tuesday’s meeting means

The meeting at the White House on Tuesday was expected to — at the very least — symbolize that Trump was growing more serious about finding a bipartisan resolution. But adding more tension to the anticipated meeting for Democrats is the fact the White House invited GOP lawmakers Democrats view as openly hostile to finding a consensus deal on DACA.

In the background, details are still being worked out on what a plan to help recipients of DACA would look like, and a bipartisan group of Senate lawmakers led by Democrat Dick Durbin of Illinois and Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina continues to negotiate.

However, the tensions that existed in December but had been overcome with a holiday deadline are playing out in real time now between the two parties. “I think this is going to be the flexion point where we get some things done or we don’t,” Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a Republican from Illinois, said Monday afternoon on CNN.

On Capitol Hill, bipartisan talks have been ongoing for months and the group of senators led by Durbin and Graham acknowledge they need Trump to lay out clear priorities to move forward.

The thinking is that Trump — who secured the Republican Party’s nomination by promising mass deportations and a border wall — can offer political cover for Republicans who may be fearful of backing any immigration bill that is viewed as amnesty among their base. With Trump’s blessing, Republicans believe they can find a way to move ahead on DACA. Without it, the votes are compromised.

The bipartisan meeting at the White House on Tuesday comes after Trump met with Republicans last week at the White House and Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona refused to attend, citing the lack of bipartisanship.

White House chief of staff John Kelly, formerly the secretary of homeland security, will also be in the bipartisan meeting Tuesday and has been leading outreach to lawmakers on Capitol Hill on the ongoing talks.

Also on the list Tuesday are a host of lawmakers who would be expected, including Durbin and Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, a 2013 immigration reform veteran. But the list also includes red state Democrats like Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Jon Tester of Montana, as well as Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, who frequently votes with Republicans on immigration and border issues — a sign that the White House is looking to pick off as many Democrats as it can even if it can’t work with the party’s key negotiators.

What 2013 immigration battle taught GOP about today’s DACA fight

The key for some negotiators attending the meeting is to convince Trump to keep any deal on DACA narrow. The agreement that is taking shape in Durbin and Graham’s group would offer a path to citizenship to DACA eligible immigrants, would include money for border security, would address the “chain migration” — or family-based sponsorship options — of the covered population and would end the diversity lottery in favor of reallocating those visas somewhere else, possibly to include a fix for Temporary Protected Status.

Flake told CNN he’s prepared to tell Trump on Tuesday that this DACA deal cannot include a whole host of immigration policy changes but instead has to be narrowly focused if Republicans want to succeed.

“This is not a comprehensive reform bill,” Flake said. “We can’t do one before March.”

More than one group pushing immigration plans

In addition to the bipartisan working group, conservatives including Cornyn and Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa are having their own conversations, and Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and James Lankford of Oklahoma are also going to be at the White House on Tuesday.

In the House, multiple efforts are underway as well, many led by rank-and-file members. Republican Rep. Will Hurd of Texas and Democratic Rep. Pete Aguilar of California have released their own bipartisan framework for a deal after weeks of negotiations. Aguilar is the whip for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. That deal focuses on DACA and border security, but the lawmakers hope additional measures could be added if necessary to finalize a deal.

The bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus — including Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, a longtime DACA advocate — had also been working to reach a compromise that before the break was similar in concept to what the Senate group was working on.

And, as in the Senate, a group of more conservative Republican lawmakers are working on their own proposal, including House Homeland Security Chairman Mike McCaul of Texas and House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, which would be strongly to the right of most of the bipartisan compromises. Both men will also be at the White House on Tuesday.

CNN’s Ted Barrett and Dana Bash contributed to this report.

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